عبور بیت کوین از ۹۷ هزار دلار!

گروسی ترمز دلار را کشید

افزایش قیمت کارخانه خودرو تأثیری بر قیمت بازار آزاد دارد؟

تنش‌های خاورمیانه ارزش طلای سیاه را بالا برد

تکان شدید قیمت خودرو؛ سمند، کوییک و دنا چند؟

زمان بندی تحویل سکه از مرکز مبادله ایران

آبان ماه سبز برای بورس

سکه حباب تخلیه کرد/ طلا گران شد

یک نماینده مجلس: قرارداد مشتریان با خودروسازان شبیه قرارداد ترکمنچای است

قیمت خودرو‌های سایپا امروز پنجشنبه ۱ آذر ۱۴۰۳ + جدول

قیمت خودرو‌های ایران خودرو امروز پنجشنبه ۱ آذر ۱۴۰۳ + جدول

قیمت سکه پارسیان امروز پنجشنبه ۱ آذر ۱۴۰۳ + جدول

قیمت سکه و طلا امروز پنجشنبه ۱ آذر ۱۴۰۳ + جدول

قیمت بیت کوین و ارز‌های دیجیتال امروز پنجشنبه ۱ آذر ۱۴۰۳ + جدول

قیمت دلار و یورو امروز پنجشنبه ۱ آذر ۱۴۰۳ + جدول

اگر ریسک‌های سیستماتیک فروکش کند، خبر‌های خوبی از بورس می‌شنویم/ یکی از عوامل رشد شاخص، افزایش قیمت خودرو بود

پیش بینی قیمت سکه و طلا فردا اول آ‌ذر ۱۴۰۳/ قیمت سکه در مرز حساس

پیش بینی قیمت دلار فردا اول آذر ۱۴۰۳/ چشم معامله‌گران به وین دوخته شد

آمار شاخص فلاکت در تابستان ۱۴۰۳+ نمودار

Bitcoin Market Cap Approaches $2 Trillion, Targets Amazon and Alphabet

Bitcoin’s market capitalization has surged, with the asset hitting another all-time high today, propelling crypto markets to a new peak of $3.34 trillion. 

AI Platform bitGPT Experiences Significant Growth Following Binance Demonstration

[PRESS RELEASE – Tallinn, Estonia, November 20th, 2024] Following its global unveiling on the main stage of Binance’s Blockchain Week conference in Dubai, AI platform bitGPT is experiencing sizable growth across every vertical of the project, from active partnership conversations to the number of users currently testing its technology. bitGPT’s X and Telegram communities grew […]

Bitcoin Nears $98,000, Just 2% Away From Six Figures 

Bitcoin prices have hit another all-time high as the asset inches closer to the milestone six-figure valuation.

Donald Trump Nominates Pro-Bitcoin Cantor Fitzgerald CEO for Commerce Secretary

Lutnick had been heavily linked with the Treasury Secretary position, but he will now be responsible for steering Trump's economic agenda.

ForexLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: USD/JPY back below 155.00, Bitcoin above 96K

• Federal Reserve speakers Thursday include Hammack, Goolsbee, Barr
• ICYMI - OPEC+ could further extend voluntary cuts at its December meeting
• Chinese government advisers call for steady 5% 2025 economic growth goal, strongr stimulus
• There are at least 10 European Central Bank officials speaking on Thursday
• U.S. Department of Justice asks judge to force Google to sell off Chrome internet browser
• US firms plan for Trump China tariffs - stockpiling, raising prices?, bailing out of China
• Bank of England's Catherine Mann speaking Thursday
• CHF traders note - Two Swiss National Bank speakers due Thursday, November 21
• Heads up for Bank of Japan Governor Ueda speaking at 0510 GMT, 0010 US Eastern time
• Deutsche Bank is wary of a 'significant correction' for US equities
• Adani dollar bond prices fell sharply following charges against Chairman Adani
• TSMC expected to build one new fabrication facility a year in Taiwan over the next decade.
• PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1934 (vs. estimate at 7.2482)
• Westpac revise its RBA forecast - see later but faster interest rate cuts
• South Korea 1 - 20 November trade data: Exports jump 5.8% y/y
• Japan's economic package expected around 21.9 trillion yen
• UBS continue to see gold and oil as hedges against macroeconomic, geopolitical risk
• BoA Securites raised US growth and inflation forecasts, see fewer Fed interest rate cuts
• Trump aims to revive the Keystone XL pipeline (politics report)
• BlackRock bitcoin ETF options indicating BTC/USD to $176K in 2026
• New Zealand Treasury plans to cut economic and fiscal forecasts
• ICYMI - (nearly) 90% of economists expect the Federal Reserve to cut by 25bp in December
• More from Fed's Collins - too early for Fed to factor in the election impact
• Trade ideas thread - Thursday, 21 November, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
• Nvidia shares down after Q3 results beat
• Nvidia earnings Q3 2024: Adj. EPS 0.81 (expected 0.75), Revenue 35.08bn (exp 33.12bn)
• Forexlive Americas FX news wrap 20 Nov: Fed's Bowman more hawkish. 20 year auction ugly.
• Fed's Collins looks to be on the fence re a December interest rate cut

The US dollar lost some ground during the Asia session with a higher EUR, AUD, CHF and, most notably, JPY.

There was little news nor data out of Japan to account for the drop in USD/JPY from its high in early trade above 155.50 to lows circa 154.90. We did get a rumour of the size of the government fiscal package, NHK (Japan’s national broadcaster) saying around 21.9 trillion yen (circa 141bn USD equivalent).

We heard from Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins after the US cash (equity) close. Collins was non-committal on her December FOMC view. In brief:

• Some additional rate cuts needed.
• Policy still restrictive.
• Doesn’t want to cut rates too quickly.
• Overly slow rate cuts could hurt the labour market.
• Final destination of rate cuts is unclear.

No such indecision from the People’s Bank of China at today’s USD/CNY reference rate setting. The Bank sought to prop up the yuan again, setting the mid-rate about 550 points lower than the modelled estimate of 7.2482. The PBoC is seeking to support the yuan by damping USD/CNY gains.

For tech traders, the US Department of Justice has asked a judge to make Google divest Chrome browser, along with other punitive measures. This was foreshadowed in the days leading up to today.

Bitcoin rose above USD96,000

There are at least 10 European Central Bank officials speaking on Thursday

Below you'll find who is on the schedule. Times are GMT/US Eastern time format.

Apart from these 10 be wary of a few popping up unannounced in various media interviews and what have you.

• 0525/0025 Bank of France Governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau speaks at Paris Europlus Financial Forum 2024 in Tokyo
• 0830/0330 Welcome remarks by ECB board member Piero Cipollone at the Euro Cyber Resilience Board for pan-European Financial Infrastructures meeting (ECRB) in Frankfurt, Germany
• 1145/0645 Keynote speech by ECB board member Claudia M Buch at CEBRA International Finance and Macroeconomics conference “The Role of Central Banks and International Financial Institutions in the Transition Towards a Low-Carbon Economy” in Luxembourg
• 1300/0800 ECB Governing Council member and Governor of the Central Bank of Cyprus Christodoulos Patsalides, discusses interest rates and challenges to banking sector at conference organised by The Economist
• 1500/1000 Bank of Spain governor Jose Luis Escriva to address parliament's Economy Committee
• 1530/1030 Speech by ECB board member Frank Elderson at the University of Cyprus in Nicosia
• 1530/1030 Participation by European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane in policy panel at 27th Annual Research Conference “The Macroeconomic Effects of Geopolitical Uncertainty” organised by De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam, Netherlands
• 1600/1100 ECB's Holzmann, Kazimir and Vujcic speak in Vienna

No sing of the boss speaking though.

Bank of England's Catherine Mann speaking Thursday

1400 GMT/0900 US Eastern time: Bank of England Monetary Policy Member Catherine Mann fireside chat with private investment firm Brown Brothers Harriman

Mann has spoken recently:

• BoE's Mann: Forward-looking indicators raising the risk of inflation persistence
• BOE's Mann: I describe myself as an 'activist' rather than a 'gradualist' on rates

• BOE's Mann: Inflation has definitely not been vanquished

• BOE's Mann argues for holding rates firmly until more evidence of diminished inflation

CHF traders note - Two Swiss National Bank speakers due Thursday, November 21

1730 GMT/1230 US Eastern time: Speech by member of the board of the Swiss National Bank Petra Tschudin and Thomas Moser, "The Swiss Repo Market: 25 Years of Success for the Financial Centre and the National Bank", Money Market Event

Petra Tschudin is the a member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank

• also Head of Department III (Money Market and Foreign Exchange, Asset Management, Banking Operations and Information Technology, as well as the Singapore branch office) in Zurich

Thomas Moser is an Alternate Member of the Governing Board of the Swiss National Bank.

Heads up for Bank of Japan Governor Ueda speaking at 0510 GMT, 0010 US Eastern time

BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda due to speak at the Paris EUROPLACE Tokyo International Financial Forum, in Tokyo.

I haven't been able to dig up anything on this.

Ueda spoke earlier this week:

• Bank of Japan Governor Ueda says economy recovering moderately, some weak signs
• USD/JPY volatile on Bank of Japan Governor Ueda speech
• Bank Japan Gov Ueda - Driver of Japan's inflation shifting towards rise in domestic wages.
• BOJ governor Ueda says will not comment on short-term FX moves
• BOJ governor Ueda says no huge build up of yen carry positions compared to July

Deutsche Bank is wary of a 'significant correction' for US equities

Deutsche Bank analysts are careful of a 'significant correction’ for US equities.

Turning points can happen quickly

When valuations are stretched to start with, there can be limited scope for further gains

Examples of high returns through history have often been followed by sizeable reversals

DB note that the CAPE ratio for the S&P 500 has only been higher on two other occasions in the last century:

• during the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s
• the period before the Global Financial Crisis in 2008
• “there was little scope for further gains since valuations were already so stretched to start with, and they were each followed by a significant correction”
• on both occasions the CAPE ratio has got as high as it is today, there was then a significant correction

DB will probably be correct at some stage. But when?

And, some proven performers are also very wary:

• Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway hoarding cash in a pattern seen before the financial crisis

***

If you need, here is a quickie CAPE explanation.

The Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings (CAPE) Ratio is sometimes referred to as the Shiller P/E ratio, after its developer, economist Robert Shiller:

• its a valuation metric for equity markets
• it provides a long-term perspective on market valuation by adjusting for economic cycles

Key Features:

1. Adjusted Earnings:The CAPE ratio divides the current price of an index (e.g., the S&P 500) by the average real (inflation-adjusted) earnings of the index over the past 10 years.

2. Purpose:

   • Smoothes out short-term fluctuations in earnings caused by economic cycles, such as booms and recessions.
   • Helps investors assess whether a market is overvalued, undervalued, or fairly valued based on historical trends.

3. Interpretation:

   • High CAPE Ratio: Suggests that the market is overvalued and may offer lower future returns.
   • Low CAPE Ratio: Indicates undervaluation, potentially signaling higher future returns.

4. Use Case:

   • Primarily used for long-term investment decisions rather than short-term market timing.
   • Often referenced to assess market conditions and compare current valuations to historical averages.

While the CAPE ratio is widely respected, critics note that it may not fully account for structural changes in markets or unusual events (e.g., tax changes or sectoral shifts).

PBOC sets USD/ CNY reference rate for today at 7.1934 (vs. estimate at 7.2482)

The People's Bank of China set the onshore yuan (CNY) reference rate for the trading session ahead.

• USD/CNY is the onshore yuan. Its permitted to trade plus or minus 2% from this daily reference rate.
• CNH is the offshore yuan. USD /CNH has no restrictions on its trading range.
• A significantly stronger or weaker rate than expected is typically considered a signal from the PBOC.

The previous close was 7.2455

In open market operations (OMOs): PBOC injects 470bn yuan via 7-day RR, sets rate at 1.5%

• 328bn yuan mature today
• net injection is 142bn yuan