پیش بینی بورس فردا چهارشنبه ۳ بهمن ۱۴۰۳

شاخص کل روز سه‌شنبه در روندی مثبت به کار خود پایان داد. با نگاه کوچکی به اخبار دوشنبه شب می‌توان به دلیل این اتفاق پی برد، زیرا از طرفی وزیر اقتصاد طی صحبت‌های خود سیگنال مثبتی به بازار سهام داد و از طرفی دیگر، دونالد ترامپ، رئیس جمهوری جدید آمریکا در اظهارات خود، مواضع تند و سخت‌گیرانه‌ای نسبت به ایران نداشت.

پیش بینی قیمت دلار فردا ۳ بهمن ۱۴۰۳/ افزایش قیمت دلار در راه است؟

بازار دلار در حالی دومین روز بهمن ماه را پشت سر گذاشت که بازار آرایش افزایشی به خود گرفت؛ معامله‌گران معتقدند پیش‌بینی‌ناپذیری رئیس‌جمهور جدید آمریکا و تأثیر سیاست‌های او بر اقتصاد جهان، سیگنال منفی به بازار اسکناس آمریکایی وارد کرده است.

پیش بینی قیمت طلا و سکه فردا ۳ بهمن ۱۴۰۳/ افزایش تقاضا در بازار طلا پس از تحلیف ترامپ

قیمت طلا و سکه در دومین روز بهمن و پس از تحلیف رئیس‌جمهور جدید آمریکا با افزایش همراه بود. معامله‌گران معتقدند بازار طلا و سکه به دلیل نگرانی و عدم اطمینان سیاسی با افزایش تقاضا مواجه شده است.

عکس/ سوپر مارکت معروف فرد طلایی- سرپل تجریش ۶۰ سال پیش

در ادامه تصویری خاطره انگیز و کمتر دیده شده از سوپر مارکت فرد طلایی را در سرپل تجریش تهران را مشاهده خواهید کرد.

چند تن زعفران نگین در بورس کالا معامله شد؟

روز گذشته در قرارداد‌های آتی زعفران شاهد افزایش موقعیت تعهدی باز در هر سه سررسید بودیم که در مجموع منجر به افزایش ۲۹۷ موقعیت در نماد زعفران نگین شد.

گزارش بورس امروز سه شنبه ۲ بهمن ۱۴۰۳

نماگر اصلی بازار سهام بعد از گذشت سه روز سخت و نزولی، سرانجام توانست در روز جاری به روند نزولی و اصلاحی خود پایان دهد و رشد اندکی را تجربه کند. کارشناسان معتقدند، صحبت‌های شب گذشته عبدالناصر همتی، وزیر اقتصاد، تاثیر بسزایی در رشد و جمع شدن صفوف فروش امروز داشته است.

جزئیات زیان خودروسازان؛ بزرگ‌ترین خودروساز کشور چقدر ضرر کرد؟ + فیلم

صورت‌های مالی میان‌دوره‌ای سه خودروساز بزرگ نیمه‌دولتی کشور از افت وخیز زیان خودرویی‌ها حکایت دارد. طبق اطلاعات ارائه‌شده به بورس، زیان انباشته ۹ماهه خودروسازان به ۲۲۳همت رسیده است. این در حالی است که زیان عملیاتی در این بازه زمانی نسبت به ۹ماه سال گذشته با افت ۴۲درصدی همراه بوده است.

GBPUSD retracing declines after support buyers lean against the 100/200 hour MAs

The GBP/USD moved lower during the Asian and European sessions but found support near the converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages (MAs). Sellers turned into buyers at this critical area, and the pair began to rotate back to the upside. The upward momentum has now pushed the price toward the 50% retracement level of the decline from the January high to the January low, located at 1.2337.

A break above this midpoint would bring the next key resistance into focus: the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart, currently at 1.2352. Notably, this MA previously stalled a rally on January 7, underscoring its significance today and in the days ahead. A sustained move above this level would signal further bullish potential.

Beyond that, traders would target the 38.2% retracement of the larger decline from the December high, which sits at 1.2369. This level represents another critical resistance point that would need to be cleared to reinforce a stronger bullish bias. For now, the focus remains on whether buyers can maintain momentum above these progressively important resistance levels.

EURUSD bounces off swing area support and moves to a 50% retracement area.

Summary of the video outlining the tech

• 📈 Swing Area Support and Buyer ConfidenceThe EUR/USD bounced off a critical swing area support, marked by previous highs and lows, signaling strong buyer interest. That area comes between 1.0332 to 1.0343.

• 📊 50% Retracement Area in FocusThe pair extended higher reached a 50% retracement of its recent downtrend, coinciding with both hourly and daily charts, adding significance to this technical level. Those levels come at 1.04028 and 1.04053.

• 🛑 Resistance and Seller StrengthSellers displayed resistance near 1.04028-1.04053, causing a price pause and possible reversal opportunities.

• 🔎 Key Observations for TradersBuyers should monitor if the price area holds above 50% retracement for a bullish continuation, while sellers can capitalize on resistance at current levels.

MUFG: EUR/USD risks below parity this quarter as Trump's trade focus shifts

MUFG notes that Trump's inauguration speech, with a heavier focus on immigration than trade, has reduced immediate risks for EUR/USD to drop below parity in Q1. However, trade-related uncertainties persist, particularly around potential tariff actions later this year.

Key Points:

• Trade Policy Focus and Market Expectations:

  • Trump's speech emphasized immigration over immediate trade measures, dampening market fears of aggressive early tariff actions.
  • Trade reviews have been scheduled for key agreements (e.g., Phase 1 deal with China, USMCA, and export controls), with findings due by April 1.

• European Exposure to Trade Risks:

  • Europe faces potential tariff threats, particularly linked to natural gas purchases from the US, though specifics remain vague.
  • The lack of immediate action on Europe and China lowers the urgency of trade-related EUR downside risks in Q1.

• FX Market Reaction and USD Positioning:

  • The USD rally suggests markets were pricing in more aggressive trade moves.
  • With ambiguity around the timing and nature of tariff announcements, USD selling is likely capped, but immediate EUR/USD downside risks have diminished.

Conclusion:

While the long-term threat of tariffs and trade tensions remains, the reduced immediacy of aggressive US actions has lessened the risk of EUR/USD breaking below parity this quarter. Markets will likely shift their focus to the April 1 review date, where the trade narrative could reignite.

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Volatility is the name of the game for AUDUSD but buyers held support near key MA support

The AUD/USD, like many other currency pairs over the past 24 hours, has experienced significant volatility in response to the transition of power in the U.S. under Trump. Yesterday, the pair dipped to test the 100-hour moving average (MA), briefly breaking below it before quickly rebounding. A similar pattern emerged today with two separate breaks below the MA, though there remains a reluctance to sustain moves beneath this key level.

On the upside, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the decline from the November 25 high has capped rallies, serving as resistance both yesterday and again today. This leaves the pair confined between strong support at the 100-hour MA and resistance at the 38.2% retracement.

Within this range, a swing area at 0.62457 provides an additional focal point. Traders should monitor this level for potential bullish or bearish signals, as the market remains balanced between support buyers and resistance sellers for now. A breakout in either direction could provide the next directional cue for the AUD/USD.

The video outlines the key levels in play and explains why.

USDCHF follows the USD lower after holding resistance at a key MA level. What next?

The USD is trending lower in the early U.S. session, and the USD/CHF is no exception. Technical factors are reinforcing this move, with sellers stepping in at the key 100-hour moving average (MA), located at 0.9112. The pair tested this level multiple times on the hourly chart but failed to break above it, prompting a reversal to the downside.

Currently, the price is testing support at the 0.9077 level. A sustained move below this point would open the door to further downside targets, starting with the day's low at 0.90507. Beyond that, the next significant level is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the December low to January high rally, sitting at 0.90209. If sellers can push and hold the price below this retracement, it would signal a shift toward stronger bearish control.

However, until the 38.2% retracement is convincingly broken, the current decline remains a standard correction within the broader trend. For now, sellers have the upper hand below the 100-hour MA, but further downside targets must be breached to solidify the bearish bias in both the short and medium term.

USDCAD swings wildly as Trump impacts the currency pair. What are the technicals saying?

The USD/CAD is heavily influenced by headline news stemming from the new Trump presidency. Yesterday, the pair initially moved lower, tracking the USD's response to the inauguration address. However, the market reacted sharply as comments and executive orders (EOs) began to surface, particularly the suggestion of a 25% tariff on Canadian goods starting February 1. While the outcome of such policies remains uncertain, the prospect caused the USD/CAD to spike higher.

From a technical perspective, recent price action has been noteworthy. The pair has been trading within a "Red Box" range since mid-December, defined by 1.42899 (low) and 1.4466 (high). Although there were brief breakouts above this range earlier this month—most notably on U.S. jobs day and again on Friday—these moves ultimately failed, with the price returning to within the box.

Looking ahead, the key resistance lies at the upper boundary of the Red Box, between 1.4448 and 1.4466. A sustained move above this zone could signal increased bullish momentum and provide buyers with another opportunity to push higher. However, if the resistance holds, a downward correction is possible, targeting a cluster of moving averages (MAs). These include the 100- and 200-hour MAs, as well as the 100-bar MA on the 4-hour chart, which converge between 1.4386 and 1.43938. A break below this MA cluster would open the door for a test of the Red Box’s lower boundary at 1.42899.